Independent can win Lyne

August 2, 2008, 10:32am,  134 views

I called Gippsland early for the Nationals and I’m calling Lyne for the independent, Rob Oakeshott, if he decides to run.

The Liberals will be his biggest threat if they choose to run a serious candidate. The only way I can see the Nats winning is on Liberal preferences if the Libs run dead.

Demographic change has hit the Nats hardest in coastal New South Wales. The electorate has become more urbanised and many people have moved there from capital cities.

The Nats have under performed federally for many years and discerning voters will take a close look at the individual candidates.

With Labor not running, the door is really open for Oakeshott.