Election timing

September 9, 2007, 5:51pm,  325 views

The conventional wisdom was that Prime Minister John Howard would call an election as late as possible, probably in November or early December.

I now believe he is more likely to call an election in October or early November.

If there was another interest rate rise it would destroy the government. Howard has to end the phony war and start the campaign proper. It is not impossible for him to win, but highly unlikely.

The later the election is held the less likely he is to win.

Calling an election will also end speculation that Peter Costello should mount a challenge. Mavericks like Wilson Tuckey are not doing the Coalition any favors by suggesting that, conveniently feeding media commentators credible material.

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Comments

2 Responses to “Election timing”

  1. Greg Naylor on September 10th, 2007 7:43pm

    With the opinion polls so low for the government, Peter Costello would have to be crazy to take over the leadership with the imminent risk of annihilation of the Liberal Party. He hasn’t got the stomach to wear such a result.

    In this election runup, we haven’t heard a word out of the Nationals. I wonder how they will fare this time around. Will they still be a viable force after the election?

  2. Michael on September 10th, 2007 8:07pm

    Yes, Costello won’t want the job now. He will be a powerful opposition leader, but perhaps not popular with voters in that role.

    The federal Nationals have been ineffective since Ian Sinclair finished as leader. One problem they have is that every time they lose a seat they have little chance of winning it back. It usually goes to the Libs.

    They might pick up one or two seats in New South Wales and lose one or two in Queensland.

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