Gippsland by-election #1

April 17, 2008, 8:03pm,  418 views

The Gippsland by-election is emerging as a do-or-die contest for the National Party.

I have previously professed my connection with former member Peter McGauran, who I regard highly, but I think the Nats are in trouble here.

They have selected state leader Peter Ryan’s chief-of-staff Darren Chester as their candidate. Chester hails from the eastern end of the electorate (Lakes Entrance) and lost against popular independent Craig Ingram at a previous state election.

He has worked in the media in the Latrobe Valley, but that was quite a few years ago and he’s certainly not regarded as a local in that area where most of the voters live.

As much as I think Chester is a good candidate, I think state Upper House member Peter Hall would have been a better choice, thereby potentially creating a vacancy for Chester in the Victorian Parliament.

According to Andrew Landeryou’s blog, the Liberals have pre-selected Traralgon-based health worker Rohan Fitzgerald and Labor is likely to pick Wellington Shire mayor Darren McCubbin.

According to a commenter on Landeryou’s site, the Nationals will lose party status in the House of Representatives if they lose this by-election. If that’s true, don’t expect Labor to do them any favors.

I was one of the few who predicted the National Party’s victory in Morwell at the last state election. But my feeling now is that people in the Latrobe Valley will vote for the best local candidate, which basically rules Chester out.

If the Nats weren’t in Coalition with the Liberals (as at the last state poll) it would help them in this electorate, but as it stands they are seen as tarred with the Liberal Party’s tainted brush.

I always thought Sale was rusted onto the National Party, but if the local mayor runs for Labor that could turn things around.

It will certainly be a fascinating contest.