Eden-Monaro poll shock

October 27, 2007, 6:53pm, 204 views,  Leave a Comment

The Canberra Times has reported poll results which suggest a comfortable Labor victory in the south-eastern NSW seat of Eden-Monaro. The two-party preferred vote is recorded as 56-44 in Labor’s favor.

Eden-Monaro is regarded as a litmus test for any election. The seat is generally won by the governing party.

I was working as editor of the Eden Magnet (an attractive paper) in 1996 when Liberal Gary Nairn won the seat from Labor maverick Jim Snow.

Jim was a lovely bloke who suffered the loss of timber worker support because of Paul Keating’s opposition to woodchipping. I spoke to Jim before the election and he seriously thought about becoming an independent like his mate Graeme Campbell, from Kalgoorlie.  Read more

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Interest rate rise

October 24, 2007, 7:43pm, 166 views,  Leave a Comment

An interest rate rise in November would be the death knell of the Coalition. Howard’s chances are already looking grim, but that would be the last nail.

Economists believe there should be a rise, but the Reserve Bank has traditionally been reticent to change rates during election campaigns.

The current governor Glenn Stevens signalled a possible change in attitude earlier this year:

“If it is clear that something needs to be done, I do not know what explanation we could offer the Australian public for not doing it, regardless of when the election might be due.”

Such a move now would give Kevin Rudd the keys to The Lodge.

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New communications

October 22, 2007, 9:59pm, 202 views,  Leave a Comment

The way we communicate has changed dramatically in my relatively short lifetime.

When I did computer studies at school in 1983 it was all programming theory; we didn’t have any actual computers in the classroom.

When I started working as a journalist in 1987 we used typewriters, the office didn’t have a fax machine and there was no such thing as a mobile phone. Read more

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Road safety

October 21, 2007, 4:04pm, 174 views,  Leave a Comment

What is a safe speed limit for Australian conditions and what is the appropriate speed limit? Are these two attributes complementary or competitive.

The Office of Road Safety in Western Australia has released a discussion paper suggesting the speed limit on country roads be reduced from 110kmh to 100kmh. The suggestion is in response to the state’s escalating rural road toll. Read more

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Fairfax watch #1

October 21, 2007, 12:47pm, 194 views,  Leave a Comment

I’ve written before about perceived Labor bias in the Fairfax press. I checked in at the Liberal Party web site this morning and saw Peter Costello claiming dodgy figures in Labor’s tax policy release.

Fairly big story, I thought, even if the numbers are in dispute. Arguably Australia’s best news web site in terms of detail and timeliness (perceived bias aside), nothing has shown up yet on The Age front page. Instead there is a big splash on Kevin Rudd’s childcare policy.

Credit to that other nest of left-leaning journalists, the ABC, for giving prominence to both items.

For those web sites which are frequently updated it’s hard to know if a story might have been and gone between visits, but in an election environment all media have an ethical obligation to maintain balanced coverage.

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A look at O’Connor

October 21, 2007, 12:38pm, 160 views,  Leave a Comment

There are many people who believe maverick Liberal MP Wilson Tuckey will have to be carried out of parliament in a pine box. He has been one of the government’s biggest critics on wheat policy and hasn’t been shy in attacking colleagues in the past.

At the age of 72, Tuckey was born six weeks before my father but shows no sign of wanting to retire.

He has withstood several strong challenges from the National Party over the years and is facing one again on November 24. Nationals candidate Philip Gardiner has made it no secret that he wants Wilson out.

For too long O’Connor has been poorly represented by a member that now focuses on fringe issues with little concern or regard for the major issues that are impacting on you and your family …

Pundits again expect Tuckey to win. Centrebet has Tuckey at $1.005 (hardly worth the bet), the Labor candidate at $17 and Gardiner at $26.

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Road funding

October 19, 2007, 7:49pm, 166 views,  Leave a Comment

As someone who has lived in both Traralgon and Sale (32 miles apart or 50km), I was pleased to read this announcement today:

A re-elected Coalition Government will provide $250 million, with more to follow, for the duplication of Traralgon to Sale section of the Princes Highway, the Deputy Prime Minister and Leader of The Nationals, Mark Vaile, announced today. This announcement is part of the Coalition’s 2020 plan for Australia’s Transport Future, an integrated vision tackling local roads and national highways. “The Liberal/Nationals $250 million commitment, with more to follow, will deliver real benefits to the people of Gippsland as a result of the completion of the duplication from Melbourne to Sale,” Mr Vaile said.

Full credit to Peter McGauran for winning that commitment.

Now that I live in Kalgoorlie, WA, I’m wondering why Wilson Tuckey and Barry Haase can’t get some significant money spent on the highway between Kalgoorlie and Perth.

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Poll gain for Coalition

October 19, 2007, 5:13pm, 159 views,  Leave a Comment

The latest Galaxy poll shows that Labor’s lead in the two-party preferred stakes has fallen from 12 percent to six percent in just under four weeks.

I think it reflects a positive reaction to the government’s promise of tax cuts and a growing concern about change for change’s sake.

Make no mistake, John Howard has plenty of petrol left in the the tank and plenty of pork in the barrel.

My guess at this stage is that the polls will continue to show a narrowing of Labor’s lead before some erratic results start to show.

As for the final outcome, I’m predicting a cliffhanger. I won’t be surprised if Howard pulls off a surprise victory like Paul Keating in 1993.

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Union influence and poverty

October 18, 2007, 7:17pm, 173 views,  Leave a Comment

The Prime Minister has stepped up his attack on union influence within the ALP. In the only published news item today on the Liberal Party web site, Howard comments on Gavan O’Connor’s loss of pre-selection in Corio and his decision to stand as an independent.

This is the latest example of how former trade union officials have muscled aside long-serving Labor Party members. Gavan O’Connor to my understanding, I could be wrong on this, was the only person in the Labor Party that actually had a farming background. And for his pains he’s been kicked out and replaced by somebody who holds a senior position in the ACTU. So, when we say that 70 per cent of the ministry in a Rudd Labor government would be former trade union officials we are not joking.

It was otherwise a quiet day on the campaign trail, with Labor’s web site posting bland media releases on costing promises, beating poverty and criticising the National Farmers Federation on broadband rollout.

Although laudable, Labor’s track record on banishing poverty isn’t all that great, as Bob Hawke would recall.

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Cousins drug charge

October 16, 2007, 8:24pm, 349 views,  1 Comment

The report in The West Australian says it all:

“Troubled West Coast star Ben Cousins has tonight been charged with drug offences after a highly public arrest in Northbridge this morning. Police allegedly found a prohibited drug in his car during a traffic stop, and also charged the football star with refusing to comply with a police drug test.”

If the charges are proved, it’s disturbing that he wouldn’t take a drug test considering he previously did a runner from a random breath test.

This issue is political given the AFL’s apparent soft handling of drugs in the sport. Cynics believe the league is more concerned about protecting its brand image than stamping out rampant drug abuse.

Earlier this year the Prime Minister’s key adviser on illicit drug use Christopher Pyne told ABC Radio: “These AFL players have a particular place in our society, and therefore they have a particular responsibility, and that means that the AFL’s policy on illicit substances has to reinforce a zero tolerance approach.”

The circumstances surrounding Chris Mainwaring’s death remain a mystery until an inquest is held, but there is enough superficial evidence to suggest the West Coast Eagles have harbored a pervasive drug culture which has been out of control for some time.

This raises all sorts of questions, including the integrity of their 2006 premiership. In the political arena, Labor has so far been reluctant to criticise the three-strikes policy, leaving the issue as one which could unexpectedly influence the election.

Earlier this month Labor’s spokesperson Kate Lundy said: “We might end up with a one-strike, two-strike or three-strike policy. Or no strikes. It will depend on what our working group of experts suggests,” she said.

The government’s policy, announced by Sports Minister George Brandis after the grand final, is more definite. The Coalition proposes public naming after the second strike.

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