Eden-Monaro poll shock

Posted by on October 27, 2007, 6:53pm, 352 views,  Leave a comment

The Canberra Times has reported poll results which suggest a comfortable Labor victory in the south-eastern NSW seat of Eden-Monaro. The two-party preferred vote is recorded as 56-44 in Labor’s favor.

Eden-Monaro is regarded as a litmus test for any election. The seat is generally won by the governing party.

I was working as editor of the Eden Magnet (an attractive paper) in 1996 when Liberal Gary Nairn won the seat from Labor maverick Jim Snow.

Jim was a lovely bloke who suffered the loss of timber worker support because of Paul Keating’s opposition to woodchipping. I spoke to Jim before the election and he seriously thought about becoming an independent like his mate Graeme Campbell, from Kalgoorlie.  Read more

Poll gain for Coalition

Posted by on October 19, 2007, 5:13pm, 284 views,  Leave a comment

The latest Galaxy poll shows that Labor’s lead in the two-party preferred stakes has fallen from 12 percent to six percent in just under four weeks.

I think it reflects a positive reaction to the government’s promise of tax cuts and a growing concern about change for change’s sake.

Make no mistake, John Howard has plenty of petrol left in the the tank and plenty of pork in the barrel.

My guess at this stage is that the polls will continue to show a narrowing of Labor’s lead before some erratic results start to show.

As for the final outcome, I’m predicting a cliffhanger. I won’t be surprised if Howard pulls off a surprise victory like Paul Keating in 1993.